c). BDC Seminar Series | 30th October 2018

Title:

“Using Agent-Based Simulation for socio-ecological uncertainty analysis”

Abstract:

Both social and ecological systems can be highly complex, but the interaction between these two worlds - a socio-ecological system (SES) - can add even greater levels. However, the maintenance of SES are vital to our well-being and the health of the planet. We do not know how such systems work in practice and we lack good data about them (especially the ecological side) so predicting the effect of any particular policy is infeasible. Here we present an approach which tries to understand some of the ways in which SES may go wrong, but constructing different complex simulation models and analysing the emergent outcomes. These, in silico, examples can allow for the institution of targeted data gathering instruments that give the earliest possible warning of deleterious outcomes, and thus allow for timely remedial responses. An example of this approach applied to fisheries is described.

Author:

Bruce Edmonds is Professor of Social Simulation and Director of the Centre for Policy Modelling (CfPM). The CfPM was formed in 1992 as one of the first research centres in the complexity sciences in the UK. It applies computer science techniques to understand issues in the social world. Since 1992 it has developed to be one of the world’s leading research centres in agent-based modelling. For more about the Centre see http://cfpm.org

Delivered by:

Bruce Edmonds (Prof.)