b). BDC Seminar series | 16th October 2018

Title:

Hidden inequality in the exposure to crime? Unreported, reported and recorded crime in Greater Manchester 2012-2016

Abstract:

The level of recorded crime varies markedly across Greater Manchester, with deprived communities bearing a disproportionate burden. However, does recorded crime accurately capture inequality in the exposure to crime? Recorded crime is composed of reported incidents that are evidenced by the police to be a crime. If reporting and evidencing are consistent across communities and crime types, then recorded crime can be argued to be reflective of the lived reality. In other words, whilst some crimes remain hidden, their proportionate distribution falls in line with recorded crime. But, if reporting and evidencing varies across communities and by crime type, recorded crime can be argued to be unreflective of the lived reality, to mask hidden inequality in the exposure to crime.

In this paper we probe the existence of hidden inequality in the exposure to violent, property and nuisance crimes across communities in Greater Manchester, classified according to their level of deprivation, between 2012 and 2016. To do so, we utilise data from the Crime Survey of England and Wales, reported (incident) and recorded crime data, as well as census data. The research deploys a Bayesian hierarchical space-time model using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation ( INLA) to examine the relationships between unreported, reported and recorded crime types across communities and through time. The results demonstrate the existence of marked hidden inequality in the exposure to crime, though this varies substantively by crime type. Finally, we discuss the implications of the findings for the advance of effective, efficient and legitimate policing interventions.

Authors:

Dr Stephanie Wallace is a Lecturer in Criminology and Quantitative Methods at Manchester Metropolitan University, and an associate member of the Manchester Metropolitan Crime and Well-Being Big Data Centre. Stephanie obtained her PhD in Applied Social Statistics from Lancaster University, where her research focused on developing methods to measure sentence severity, and applying these methods to assess sentencing disparity in England and Wales. Her research continues to employ a range of quantitative techniques and methods to investigate disproportionality within the criminal justice system, particularly in relation to the spatial and temporal interplay with inequality.

Dr Karolina Krzemieniewska-Nandwani is a Research Associate at the Manchester Metropolitan University Crime and Well-Being Big Data Centre. She specialises in data analysis and statistics, with particular interest in classification techniques and time series analysis. Her industrial background has equipped her with practical experience in the application of advanced statistical methods suitable for analysis of crime, policing and health data. Her most recent projects involve the analysis of crime harm and police resource demand modelling.

Delivered by:

Karolina Krzemieniewska-Nandwani (Dr.)